Don't panic – even if you do catch swine flu

In the past few days, swine flu has turned from a topic of relatively light-hearted conversation into a serious anxiety. The figure of 65,000 deaths quoted by Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, has worked its way into the popular imagination. The fact that this is an upper limit tends to be overlooked, as does the even more important detail that it assumes an overall fatality rate of just 0.35 per cent of those infected. Fewer than one in 200 people who catch swine flu will die, according to these projections.

Even so, it is hard not to be worried, following a week in which 55,000 new cases emerged. Swine flu has not become more dangerous, but it is spreading faster than the medical authorities anticipated: since the beginning of July, the number of people consulting GPs with flu-like symptoms has increased from 15 to 40 per 100,000 per day. Hence the urgency of the Government's advice to pregnant women (whose immune systems are naturally suppressed) to avoid unnecessary travel on public transport and to parents to keep their babies away from crowds.
It is becoming clear that swine flu, while not yet more dangerous than ordinary flu, can inflict some nasty symptoms on Britain's society and economy. Holiday plans are being ruined as major airlines and tour operators refuse to transport passengers with suspected flu. This is fair enough – but, annoyingly, it is difficult to claim travel insurance for cancelled holidays because it involves doing just what the Government does not want people to do: visiting the GP. Meanwhile, dozens of British schoolchildren and teachers visiting Beijing were placed in quarantine at the weekend because three children were running high temperatures. And Italy's health ministry has advised its citizens to take extra precautions while visiting this country.

Britain is acquiring a reputation as the swine flu capital of Europe – and the figures explain why. After Mexico and the United States, we have the highest incidence of the disease in the world. Why? Perhaps this was only to be expected, given the unsettling degree to which Britain has become an international crossroads. But we also need to ask whether there should have been tighter screening at airports at the start of the Mexican epidemic.

There were claims yesterday that a clash between Whitehall departments delayed the launch of a swine flu hot line. So far, however, the Government's advice has been sensible and struck the right balance. A challenge lies ahead: to prevent infection and – almost equally important – to prevent unnecessary anxiety. Don't panic, even (or especially) if you are unlucky enough to catch swine flu.